Table 1. Milch production in 2023-2025, (in thousand tonnes – milk equivalent) 2023 2024 (estimated) 2025 (forecast) Change, % (2023-2024) Change, % (2024-2025) India 236 350 242 960 249 000 +2,80 % +2,49 % European Union 159 821 160 621 149 400 +0,50 % −6,99 % United States 102 921 102 509 103 200 -0,40% +0,67 % China 43 435 43 218 New Zealand 21 245 21 437 42 095 21 600 -0,50 % −2,60 % +0,90 % +0,76 % World 966 593 981 051 988 100 +1,50 % +0,72 % Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; U.S. Department of Agricul- ture’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN); USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS); Rabobank (WMP) are also forecast to increase. Revised forecasts predict lower prices for cheddar cheese and butter in 2025, while prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and dry whey are expected to rise. China China’s dairy sector is experiencing a major transformation, marking a signi- ficant shift in its import practices. Milk production declined by 0.5% in 2024, and experts forecast a further drop in 2025. Milk production in China is projected to reach 42 million tonnes in 2025, a 2.6% decrease compared to the previous year. This reduction is driven by fewer dairy cows and a sharper-than-expected decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. The country is adopting a new approach in 2025, marking a significant departure from recent trends. This decline could lead to a 2% increase in dairy imports in 2025. The evolving dynamics of milk production and shifting demographics Table 2. Milk trade in 2023-2025, (in thousand tonnes – milk equivalent) 2023 2024 (estimated) 2025 (forecast) Change, % (2024-2025) Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export India 185 251 182 338 180 345 −1,1% +2,1% European Union 3 063 24 458 3 059 23 811 3 050 23 600 −0,3% −0,9% United States 2 240 12 525 2 274 12 238 2 300 12 500 +1,1% +2,1% China 15 870 178 14 224 164 14 500 170 +1,9% +3,7% New Zealand 210 20 549 184 20 998 180 21 200 −2,2% +1,0% World 84 622 84 619 84 706 84 934 85 000 85 300 +0,3% +0,4% Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; U.S. Department of Agricul- ture’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN); USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS); Rabobank are reshaping China’s import patterns. Potential trade tensions with the U.S. and ongoing investigations into EU dairy subsidies may pose additional challenges to import levels. New Zealand In New Zealand, milk production for 2025 is projected to reach 21.2 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of nearly 1 % compared to 2024. This growth is attributed to generally favorable weather conditions, with the milder impact of the El Niño weather pattern, which typically fosters positive pasture growth for dairy production in the country‘s southern regions. Domestic consumption remains low, with more than 98% of milk produc- tion exported. New Zealand has also secured buyers for its additional milk, contributing to a record-high milk price. However, challenges could arise, particularly due to the shifting global trade environment as the United States moves away from decades of alignment with international trade agreements. Dairy producers are increasingly focusing on high-value pro- ducts such as cheese, butter, and infant formula, shifting away from milk powder. In 2024, whole milk powder (WMP) ex- ports accounted for 41% of total dairy exports, with emerging markets like the UAE and Bangladesh helping to offset declines in China (-5.5 %) and Algeria (-18 %). The export of high-value products, including protein concentrates and lacto- ferrin, surged by 13.8% year-over-year in early 2024, underscoring New Zealand‘s focus on premium market segments. The global dairy market is expected to grow modestly in 2025, driven by steady supply growth and strong export de- mand. Overall, the dairy market in 2025 is set to experience moderate growth, with regions adjusting to market conditions and shifting consumer demands, while facing challenges like trade tensions and environmental policies. Dr Vera Schenkenberger 15 DAIRY INSIDE